My predictions for the next new Sullivan County birds.

My 2016 top ten predictions for most likely birds to be added to Sullivan County List.
Every five years, NYSOA puts out a list of birds predicted as the most likely next additions to the New York State list. When it came out five years ago I made a prediction list for Sullivan County. Here is the list I predicted.
Cackling Goose
Ross’s Goose
Barnacle Goose
Swallow-tailed Kite
Swainson’s Hawk
Western Sandpiper
Marbled Godwit
Willet
Long-billed Dowitcher
Rufous Hummingbird
In the five years since I wrote this list, five birds have been added to the Sullivan County list. They are Ruddy Turnstone, Cackling Goose, Black-bellied Whistling Duck, Long-billed Dowitcher and Western Sandpiper. As you will immediately notice, three of the species were predicted. In my humble opinion, Cackling Goose , Long-billed Dowitcher and Western Sandpiper were all long overdue. All three species have been seen in neighboring counties and it was just a matter of time before they were documented here. Of the remaining seven species, some are also long overdue. Rufous Hummingbird has been seen multiple times in all our neighboring counties and should show up at any time. The remaining species have all been seen in region 9 (our region) and are likely additions, though not as common as the three that were added. The remaining two new species that were added were Black-bellied Whistling Duck and Ruddy Turnstone. I missed these as potential adds. First, Ruddy Turnstone is such a strong flyer that it seldom puts down inland during migration. It usually just continues on until it reaches the coast. We were fortunate to have this individual show up at Morningside. Lastly, Black-bellied Whistling Duck was so new on the radar that there were only two other records in the state. Ironically, one record right next door in neighboring Orange County. It was considered so unlikely at that time that it was beyond my predictability. Since that time, there have been ten records in New York and the arrival of six birds in Sullivan County (at Morningside Park) was the fifth record. With all this said, here are my predictions for the next ten species likely to turn up in Sullivan County.
Ross’s Goose
Barnacle Goose
Swallow-tailed Kite
Swainson’s Hawk
Marbled Godwit
Willet
Rufous Hummingbird
Barrow’s Goldeneye
Gyrfalcon
Tufted Duck
All of the above have been seen more than once in region nine and are good candidates to show up here in the county. If anyone would like to comment or make a prediction of their own, please feel free to send in your choice for the next new Sullivan County record.

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2 Responses to My predictions for the next new Sullivan County birds.

  1. Deb Kral says:

    and if you see ANY of them, John, you had better call me ! I would love to see a Marbled Godwit, a lifebird and an adult Swainson’s !!! Hope your predictions come true!

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